James Huling, Nicole Franzel, and Paul Abrahamian are all that remain of the original BB18 cast that moved in late June and now more than three months later it’s time for one of them to be crowned the winner. Nine Jury votes are out there and a few bitter Jurors could be along for the ride.
A week ago I thought for sure we’d have Nicole taking James, Paul taking Nicole, and James staring blankly in to space. After a few twists and turns that gave us a possibility that Nicole was going to take Paul we’re now back to the original most likely scenarios. Of course a threat delivered last night may have changed that up for Nicole.
When Round 3 arrives it’ll be Nicole versus Paul, that’s already been established. So who can pull off the win here? I’m still giving the edge to Paul. His social game was strong and he spent a lot of time working the house. Nicole, on the other hand, has admitted she avoided creating social relationships and spent most of her time in bed with the purpose of avoiding potential for backstabs against her. Since this round relies on HG knowledge plus luck I’m going to nudge it closer to Paul.
If Paul wins he’ll take Nicole. If Nicole wins, she may now be taking James. I remain somewhat uncertain because although this appears to have been her plan for awhile she didn’t anticipate Paul saying she’d lose his vote if she blindsides him which is exactly what she was planning to do.
This goes to terrible Jury management on Nicole’s part. I started to buy in to her F2 promises to Paul because it made no sense to sink herself neck deep in to this F2 deal with Paul only to yank the carpet out. I thought that’d be such a bad idea that she isn’t foolish enough to try that. Yeah, turns out she is. And now since she thinks she needs Paul & Victor’s votes to beat James she may be forced back in to her promise to keep Paul. Overall I’ll be more surprised if she ends up taking Paul than James though.
So let’s look at the two most likely F2 scenarios. Paul vs Nicole and James vs Nicole. I don’t see Paul vs James happening unless Nicole does warn Paul in advance and he decides to return the favor by taking James instead. But if Paul truly believes his best chance is against Nicole then he’ll stick to that plan even if he’s upset at her.
Paul Vs Nicole:
The newbie versus the Vet, a situation Nicole said she wanted to avoid, but if we’re here then I’m assuming Paul won R3. Now about about those votes?
Da’Vonne: Paul
Zakiyah: Nicole
Bridgette: Paul
Paulie: Nicole
Michelle: Paul
Natalie: ?
Victor: Paul
Corey: Nicole
James: Nicole
Day left under Paul’s watch, but they are still former teammates and although Day was willing to consider Nicole for the win I think she’ll be glad for Paul to give her the chance to vote otherwise. Zakiyah credited Paul as playing a good social game in our interview when she left, but I think she’ll follow Paulie’s lead and he’ll be voting for Nicole. Although, maybe Paulie will be looking to Bro it up with a guys vote but I still expect him to vote for the Calafiore family friend, Nicole.
Bridgette gave Paul credit for the best game when she was leaving and says she would have teamed up with him if she could. Considering Nicole’s flip on Frank I think Bridgette will stick with liking Paul’s game. Michelle voting for “Snakole?” Won’t happen. Give that one to Paul too.
Victor is obviously going for Paul just as Corey will vote for Nicole to win. James should vote for Nicole too even though she betrayed him a few times and if he leaves it’ll be at Paul’s hands tonight with James never knowing that Nicole planned on taking him but had been lying.
So the wildcard here for me is Natalie. Somewhat. She was very upset with Nicole when she left but in her exit interview she said Nicole was playing the best game. If she sticks with that then her vote could go to Nicole over Paul for the win. Her original plans for “girl power” no matter what was discarded a few weeks ago so it’s not impossible for her to end up voting for a guy.
An even bigger wildcard in all this though is the Jury discovering who is still there at the end. I think the Jury will recognize Paul had a much harder road to get to the end than Nicole did as she stayed away from the game as much as possible, this by Nicole’s own admission. Most former HGs will advise new players to lay low for the first couple of weeks. Nicole laid low for the first couple of months and got up around Week 9 to start playing. It worked to get her to the end, but can it work to get her the win?
I’ll say no and predict this match up will end with Paul winning Big Brother 18. But what about against James? Read on to the next page…
Our other most likely scenario features Nicole and James together at F2 and is what I expect if she wins R3 tonight.
Nicole vs James:
James and Nicole played a very similar game. Both came in as Vets, soon paired up with a newbie, hung out together for as much as possible, then watched their partner get voted out while on the Block against them. Nicole started “playing” pretty late but James’s game was somehow even more passive than Nicole’s. This will hurt his chances but on the flip side of that, he’s got barely any enemies as a result.
Da’Vonne: Nicole
Zakiyah: Nicole
Bridgette: James
Paulie: Nicole
Michelle: James
Natalie: James
Victor: ?
Corey: Nicole
Paul: James
Day said she just might have to give Nicole her vote and up against James seems like an easy case to make that happen. Zakiyah doesn’t have anything against Nicole and just like in the last case I think she’ll vote with Paulie.
Bridgette probably won’t be happy with either choice but if she’s good again with Natalie then she could vote for James as an extension of that friendship. Michelle, same as before, there’s no way she votes for Nicole, right? Give her vote to James especially since she went out while aligned with him and Natalie.
Speaking of Natalie, that one is easy. She’ll obviously vote for James. Likewise, Corey’s vote is a gimme for Nicole.
Now we’ve got Paul and Victor. Paul warned Nicole last night that she’ll lose his vote if she flips on him at the last minute after their week of deep promises to the contrary. He said he won’t be able to respect her game and it would mark poor Jury management to me so I don’t take that as a personal move especially since he said if she needs to do that for what’s best for her game then just don’t blindside him with it.
So Nicole can vote him out and not lose his vote unless she does it in a way he can’t respect for game play. Would Victor be willing to forgive Nicole’s betrayal after this much time or would a backstab against Paul tear open that freshly healed wound for Victor? She could end up losing both of those votes and the game if she blindsides Paul.
Although both the Vets played an effective game to reach the end I don’t think either James or Nicole played a “great game” as both worked so hard to “lay low” and I think that goes back to their trigger shy caution of being a returning player. Both were scared to repeat their mistakes of the past, just like we saw a much more reserved Da’Vonne, in the main game at least, and we got a shadow of their potential here.
However, despite all that I think Nicole gets the edge for her game over his and will beat out James in this F2 match up to be the winner of Big Brother 18.
Now on to the AFP predictions plus a stack of polls for all the F2 possibilities.
America’s Favorite Houseguest:
As for AFP this season, James now says he was told all of the F3 are also eligible (after previously saying DR told him they weren’t, so who knows) which puts him in the running to win this. Nicole was in the Top 3 of her season and James won AFP his season. Both started with a major leg up in the battle for America’s Fav HG which I think is horrendously unfair to the newbies and they should have been part of something else for a smaller Fav Vet award instead.
Victor took a big lead over James (2nd) in our AFP poll here, but last year I believe JMac won our poll and lost to James. I’m going to hope for Victor winning it but am expecting James to get this win again. He’s been playing for it all season and probably pulled it off this time too.
So what do you think for all of these potential wins? Who gets R3? Who pulls off the BB18 victory? And who becomes the new Fav HG? Share your thoughts below and vote in our polls as well.
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